Remaco-Report | 2026 Q3

In the study “Capital Market Expectations in Swiss Francs”, our Research Team has compiled and standardised return and risk expectations and aggregated them into CHF-denominated capital market expectations.

Key findings Q3/2026:

Equities on the rise, bonds remain subdued, real assets as a stable anchor

Bonds
Only global corporate bonds (2.03%) and high-yield bonds (3.03%) offer a positive return in CHF. Swiss Confederation bonds remain negative at -0.22%.

Equities
The average expected return across all regions rises to 5.83% p.a., with the US continuing to rank last in global comparison.

• USA (4.14%): Structural overvaluation continues to limit upside potential.

• Europe (6.15%), Emerging Markets (5.97%) and Japan (5.94%) offer attractive return expectations – particularly the Pacific region excluding Japan (6.09%), which is among the regions with broad consensus on its return potential.

• Switzerland (6.68%) has the highest expected return, although the limited number of institutions covering the Swiss equity market somewhat limits the significance of this figure.

Alternative Investments
Gold has gained significantly, with an expected return of 2.44%. Real estate (REITs) remains a stable source of returns at 5.25%.

Conclusion

A target return of 4.0% p.a. is achievable with a broadly diversified, globally oriented strategy. The key takeaway: avoid overweighting US equities. Alternative regions offer an effective counterbalance to the high US concentration in global equity indices. Gold and global real estate make an important contribution to both stability and returns – in stark contrast to traditional bonds.

Our Global Portfolio ETF Mandate implements these expectations: rules-based, transparent and cost-efficient.